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Deadly strike on Iran consulate ‘crossed a line’: analysts

Beirut &#8211 A fatal strike blamed on Israel in opposition to Iran&#8217s diplomatic mission in Damascus could set off a spillover of the Gaza war throughout the location, an escalation Tehran experienced sought to stay clear of, analysts explained.

Monday&#8217s strike levelled the consular annex of the Iranian embassy and killed 13 persons, such as 7 members of Iran&#8217s Islamic Innovative Guard Corps (IRGC), Iranian condition media documented.

They integrated two senior commanders of the Guards&#8217 Qud Force foreign operations arm, Brigadier Generals Mohammad Reza Zahedi and Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi, Iranian officials explained.

Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Team identified as the assault &#8220a considerable escalation&#8221. 

&#8220By focusing on an Iranian diplomatic facility, Israel has crossed a line,&#8221 he explained to AFP.

After months of battling Iran-backed Hamas militants in Gaza, Israel is now stepping up its operations in opposition to Iranian and professional-Iran commanders in Lebanon and Syria, a shift observers dread could spiral into all-out war.

Iran has denied prior know-how of Palestinian militant team Hamas&#8217s unparalleled Oct 7 attack on Israel that brought on the war.

But it is just one of Hamas&#8217s prime supporters and backs a myriad of armed teams that have attacked Israel in solidarity with Hamas, which includes Lebanon&#8217s Hezbollah, which has exchanged in the vicinity of-daily fire with Israel for months.

Though Iran has mentioned it wishes to stay clear of full-scale war, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned Tuesday that &#8220Israel will be punished&#8221 for the Damascus strike, while President Ebrahim Raisi said the raid &#8220will not go unanswered&#8221.

&#8211 &#8216Toward escalation&#8217 &#8211

Bassam Abu Abdallah, who heads the Damascus Centre for Strategic Analysis and is shut to the Syrian govt, mentioned that just before Monday, &#8220there ended up guidelines of engagement, but now it&#8217s an all-out war concerning Israel and the resistance axis&#8221.

Iran and its supporters use the time period resistance axis to refer to its alliance with armed groups all over the area which share its resolutely anti-Zionist and anti-American stance.

&#8220It is now distinct that the craze is in the direction of escalation,&#8221 Abu Abdallah said, adding: &#8220We could start to see improved assaults from US bases in Syria, Iraq or somewhere else.&#8221

In late January, pro-Iran groups said they were being suspending assaults in opposition to US troops in Iraq and Syria to avert a regional escalation, immediately after the two Baghdad and Tehran said they opposed the teams&#8217 campaign.

On Tuesday, Hezbollah warned that the strike on the Iranian consulate &#8220will not pass with no the enemy getting punishment and revenge&#8221. 

Israel has responded to Hezbollah fire from Lebanon by extending its attacks deeper into the region and multiplying assassinations of the team&#8217s commanders.

The Shiite Muslim militant group, which boasts a big arsenal of rockets and missiles, has largely limited its assaults on Israel to the border area.

The Disaster Group&#8217s Vaez explained: &#8220Iran is much more very likely than not to impose a price on Israel, but it is very likely to do so in an oblique way and by way of its partners and proxies in the area.

&#8220Iran&#8217s predicament is that failure to answer could signal weakness to Israel but retaliation dangers a harsher US or Israeli motion&#8221.

&#8211 &#8216Transnational war&#8217 &#8211

The Damascus strike could signal that Israeli Key Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, entangled in the Hamas war for approximately 6 months, is making ready for a wider regional conflict.

Under strain from Washington, &#8220Netanyahu is managing out of time to carry out the war in Gaza, and is as an alternative turning to Lebanon and Syria to weaken the Iranian regional army hard work,&#8221 reported Nick Heras of the New Lines Institute for Tactic and Policy.

&#8220Israel sights the conflicts towards Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon as two fronts in a transnational war against Iran, which the Iranians operate from Damascus,&#8221 Heras included.

He claimed Netanyahu &#8220expects Israel to have to shortly fight a location-large war with Iran&#8221 and for the United States to be a part of it.

&#8220The Israelis are making an attempt to eliminate the most significant and seasoned IRGC commanders to weaken Iranian setting up and abilities in advance of that war,&#8221 he extra.

But diplomatic initiatives are underway to de-escalate tensions, with Syrian ally Russia contacting for a UN Stability Council meeting on the strike later Tuesday.

Washington has explained to Tehran it was not concerned in the Israeli strike, in accordance to an American formal quoted by US media outlet Axios.

The write-up Fatal strike on Iran consulate &#8216crossed a line&#8217: analysts appeared initially on Iraqi Information.