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JP Morgan expects Iraq to increase oil output in 2025

Baghdad ( – JP Morgan sees that three key countries in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) should increase their oil production by 2025.

The Head of the Global Commodities Strategy team at JP Morgan, Natasha Kaneva, said in a recent report that Iraq, Kazakhstan, and the UAE are expected to increase their total oil production capacity by more than 300,000 barrels per day starting in 2025.

The UAE’s oil producer, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), announced this week that it increased its oil production capacity by 200,000 barrels per day to 4.85 million barrels per day.

According to Kaneva, Saudi Arabia now has a sizable amount of spare capacity, and in 2025, the rise in the world’s oil consumption is expected to decelerate.

JP Morgan’s analyst noted that maintaining supply limits by OPEC this year would not fix the imbalances that will exist in 2025.

OPEC+ mentioned in a statement last week that Iraq and Kazakhstan, two members of the coalition, agreed to compensate for excess oil production by further reducing their oil output until the end of 2024.

OPEC+ said following an online meeting on Friday that Iraq exceeded its quota by pumping 602,000 barrels per day in total in the first three months of 2024, while Kazakhstan exceeded its quota by pumping 389,000 barrels per day.

OPEC+ added that any overproduction that may arise in April 2024 for Iraq and Kazakhstan will be accommodated in the respective compensation plans over the remaining months of 2024.

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